Months in advance, hordes of faithful — particularly those jilted week in and week out by the objects of their affection — marked their calendars for April 25, 2013. It is judgment day for some teams (read: the New York Jets). For others, it’s simply an opportunity to bolster their weaker positions. It is perhaps the most simultaneously hopeful and fateful day for fans everywhere who wish so fervently to land that one impact player that can make over a franchise. Tonight is the NFL draft.
The art of augury has been reinvented countless times over with respect to this one day, as obsessive statisticians and self-proclaimed fortune tellers like Mel Kiper Jr. — who must by now own the record at ESPN for most wildly inaccurate predictions — wake up in preparation for this decade-defining event.
But as fun an exercise in prediction as this occasion provides, we’re instead going to break down two key players in terms of how they stack up to current NFL players and how their skill sets might translate to the league upon being drafted.
Though this year’s draft looks, by all accounts, lacking at quarterback, it still presents two intriguing potential game-changers. Electrifying players who have endured the ups and downs of collegiate-level stardom, Geno Smith of West Virginia and Matt Barkley of USC both appear to fit the mold of NFL quarterbacks, but may struggle at the onset.
Geno Smith
Smith enters the draft the more highly touted of the two. Standing nearly 6-foot-3 with a lean build, Smith adeptly navigated the Big 12 in West Virginia’s first year in the conference after departing from the Big East. Although Smith was unable to earn his third consecutive All-Conference award, he took his spread offense to work against the elevated competition and wreaked havoc, completing over 70 percent of his passes for 42 touchdowns and just six interceptions.
While his physical attributes undoubtedly boosted his draft stock, Smith captivated audiences nationwide — and NFL scouts, the real target audience — with his assuredness in the pocket and his uncanny ability to thread the needle. Smith also firmly established himself as a brilliant student of the game in his final year in college, devouring game tape for hours on end.
But for all that Smith did well, he still managed to regress as the season rolled on, with his devolution capped off by a thorough undoing at the hands of Syracuse in the New Era Pinstripe Bowl. Smith’s vision worsened, often exacerbated by blitz-heavy defenses that figured out the best way to neutralize his talents, and many times, he shied away from pressure. Nevertheless, the question is not in which round Smith will be drafted, but rather where in the top 10 he’ll go.
Matt Barkley
Matt Barkley had a very different season, becoming the poster child for regression and the face of immense disappointment. Under Barkley the Trojans finished 7-6 in 2012, a dismal showing given their status as preseason favorites. The former Gatorade Player of the Year, who started at quarterback as a true freshman, improved his numbers in each of his first three seasons at the helm at USC, but his senior season witnessed a drop-off in both completion percentage and touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Although returning for his senior season ultimately hurt Barkley’s prospects, it did allow him to hone his play-calling, demonstrate further his intangibles — he was a three-time team captain — and gain more experience running a pro-style offense. The inconsistency of his offense was troubling — and at times tremendously frustrating — but that should not dissuade teams from taking a hard look at this kid.
Much like former number one pick Andrew Luck, Barkley has panoramic vision and can put a defense on its heels with crafty play-calling and other sorts of misdirection. While Barkley is not exceptionally athletic, he was competent enough rolling out and on bootlegs to compensate, and he was especially effective when he shuffled his receivers around before the snap and executed pump-fakes to fool defensive backs.
But scouts aren’t looking for competency. Neither his build nor his arm, neither his mobility nor his anxiety under pressure bodes well at the next level, and it remains to be seen whether he can adjust to the faster-paced action of the NFL.
Each of these quarterbacks has filled a leadership role, and the poise of the two quarterbacks is undeniable. Both will be positive additions to whatever teams acquire them, and the teams on which they end up will have a massive effect on their futures. But the real mystery lies in how they will fare against the best of the best, and history has shown us that even the players seemingly destined to succeed can flop.
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