Orlando City's current home. Photograph: Orlando City Soccer ClubPhil Rawlins insists he does not have a crystal ball nor is he any relation of Nostradamus, but his prediction in October 2010 of "an MLS franchise in three to five years" looks startlingly prescient in the light of announcements by the city and county mayors in Orlando.
"Orlando has netted a big goal," insisted city mayor Buddy Dyer. "With the addition of soccer, we're marrying the world's most popular game with the number one tourist destination." Orange County mayor Teresa Jacobs weighed in with: "We're one of the few communities in the country that can build outstanding facilities. We are excited to be able to potentially bring a Major League Soccer franchise to Orange County."
It concluded a round of town hall-style meetings with the county and tourist development board commissioners and left Rawlins and his increasingly buoyant Orlando City Soccer Club on the verge of fulfilling that "three-to-five-year" promise with which they announced their arrival less than three years ago, holding Orlando's US Pro league rights but precious little else.
Now, barring a complete about-face by the County commissioners in their final vote next month, the key to the door of Major League Soccer will be delivered to Rawlins and Co in the shape of confirmation of the mayoral agreement of a $20m pledge towards an 18,000-seat soccer-specific stadium in downtown Orlando. This will give Orlando a major positive as MLS weighs up the options after announcing that the league will expand by four teams, to 24 franchises by 2020.
Despite success on the field – Orlando City are firmly on the trail of a second US Pro title in three seasons while they also beat two MLS teams in this year's US Open Cup – and growing attendance, with a league-record 10,697 for a regular-season game last Sunday (Chivas USA are averaging less than that in MLS), the effective clincher for a successful bid for top-flight entry has always been the stadium.
MLS say they require all new franchises to boast a ground dedicated first and foremost to the round-ball game. No more ground-shares with NFL teams or obscure college stadia; the future of America's senior soccer league is in stadia that typically resound to cries of "Goal!" (or even "¡Gol!") rather than "D-fence!"
Hence OCSC president Rawlins knew the biggest test of his prescience lay in convincing the local powers-that-be of a public-private funding partnership, along with proving their own financial bona fides.
But the former Stoke City board member told the Guardian this week: "We were very confident when we arrived that MLS could be a reality. The League wants to fill the vacuum in the South-East and Orlando is a great market fit for them. We have a city that is growing at twice the national average and has an average age of 35 – the perfect demographic. Plus, over the past three years, we have proven there is a real appetite here for soccer.
"And we have no doubts it can really flourish in Central Florida – our growing attendance, which now averages more than 8,000 per game, is testament to that fact. There is a demand for good professional soccer here and our fans have shown they want MLS in Orlando.
"Over the past 18 months we have maintained a regular dialogue with both Mayors and I think that was key to our success last week. Mayor Dyer in particular has helped guide us through the process and was a big help initially in Tallahassee with the State funding request and then with working with the local commissions."
OCSC were barely on the MLS radar in 2011 but had made enough strides to be giving the second New York franchise a strong run for its (considerable) money last year. When the league officially announced New York City as the 20th team in May, Orlando were still knocking on the door loudly, at the head of a pack of other hopefuls that includes Miami, Minneapolis, Detroit and Atlanta.
But Rawlins has always remained confident his team would be next. In June 2012 he claimed he was just 18 months away from checking the necessary stadium box and, with the support of Mayors Dyer and Jacobs firmly in the old onion bag, he is actually three months ahead of schedule.
Things were almost derailed in March when the Florida legislature refused to vote on a proposal to earmark public funds for new stadium projects in the state, cutting off a prime route to that final 'check,' but Rawlins had already pulled off arguably his greatest 'signing' a few weeks earlier when the club welcomed Brazilian millionaire Flavio Augusto da Silva as their new majority owner.
With Da Silva's heavyweight support, City turned their sights to a local financing deal using part of the county's tourist tax, asking for $20m to kick-start the $94.5m stadium project. Last week marked the crux of their bid and, while there was initial scepticism from the County commissioners, the meetings finished in triumphant style with the two mayors giving the funding package their official blessing.
There are still opponents to the scheme, with Tea Party members and Democrats forming a rare alliance to insist private sports teams should not get public handouts, while bipartisan watchdog group CountyWatch insist that claims of a 30-year $1.2bn economic boost for an MLS franchise in Orlando are greatly exaggerated.
But even the opposition seemed ready to admit defeat, with Doug Head, president of CountyWatch, insisting bitterly: "A lot of people have gotten the feeling the elected officials are in the pocket of the individuals who are behind this. The public just gives up because they are going to do what they are going to do. Resistance is futile."
Claims of an official sellout ring hollow, however, as Mayor Dyer has a notable track record of bringing long-term business success to the city and the former state Democratic leader has overseen a shrewd leadership of the city for more than 10 years. His support of OCSC seems based on sound business sense – and the fact the club is putting up more than $80m of its own money.
Equally, Rawlins is absolutely convinced they have laid the foundations for long-term Sunshine State success, despite the past failures of teams in Miami and Tampa. He added: "Last Sunday's attendance was proof positive of that, and it was a combination of a number of factors: the hard work of our ticket staff, the momentum built by the media coverage of the past two weeks and the great Florida weather.
"Orlando is a unique market with true international connections and over 57 million visitors in 2012. This gives us a potential global platform for our brand. We believe that not only can we succeed in MLS but we can go on to be a significant global brand in world soccer. 'Everyone's second team' would be a great position for us to attain."
Team sources say the necessary expansion fee to join MLS has already been agreed – underwritten by Da Silva – and, while the league has refused to tip its hand just yet, spokesman Dan Courtemanche did issue a significant statement, insisting:
Major League Soccer is pleased to learn of Mayor Jacobs' support. MLS continues to monitor the situation and is keeping in regular contact with Orlando City officials regarding next steps. MLS encourages both the City and County Commissioners to follow Mayor Dyer and Mayor Jacobs' recommendations and support funding for this exciting public-private partnership.
When MLS Commissioner Don Garber announced the league would enlarge to 24 teams by 2020 he started the race for four new franchises. But in Florida the main questions as far as Orlando City are concerned are – will they be approved for 2015 or 2016; and who will be the other three teams? Of course, there are other hopeful cities who might have something to say about that.
